Obama sta vincendo: voti veri

L'Early Voting sembra molto favorevole ad Obama e ai Democratici. Secondo David Plouffe, il confronto tra i dati che provengono dai Battleground States che registrano gli elettori per via partitica e gli elenchi in loro possesso mostrano un netto incremento della partecipazione dei Democratici. Secondo Plouffe, McCain per vincere gli Stati in bilico dovrebbe ottenere 15% of the Democratic vote, 95% of the Republican and 60% of the independent vote.

Qui sotto i dati riportati dalla campagna di Obama. Ovviamente gli elettori iscritti come Democratici potrebbero anche votare per McCain, ma vista la sproporzione tra i due elettorati, specie se paragonata al 2004, il candidato del Gop ha bisogno di una matematica molto difficile. Quella suggerita da David Plouffe.

I Democratici stanno votando in numero maggiore nell'early voting rispetto ai Repubblicani e rispetto al 2004.

North Carolina – 2008 to date
All Votes By Party Registration

DEM 520,064 56% REP 254,515 27% UNA 155,476 17%

North Carolina – 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers
All Votes By Party Registration

DEM 479,305 48% REP 363,294 37% UNA 149,632 15%

Nevada – 2008 to date
All Voting

Dem 107,122 53% Repub 63,577 32% Other 30,938 15%

Total 201,637

Nevada – 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers
All Votes By Party Registration

DEM

147,408 45% REP 135,743 41% OTHER 45,211 14%

Iowa – 2008 to date
All Voting

Dem 132,882 50% Repub 76,689 29% Other 53,787 20%

Iowa – 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers
All Voting

Dem 185,115 48% Repub 118,167 30% Other 86,071 22%

New Mexico – 2008 to date
All Voting

Dem 84,123 56% Repub 49,145 33% Other 16,484 11%

New Mexico – 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers
All Voting

Dem 178,216 50% Repub 132,505 38% Other 42,461 12%

Colorado – 2008 to date
All Voting

Dem 184,352 39% Repub 181,424 38% Other 110,284 23%

Colorado – 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers
All Voting
Dem 307,244 34% Repub 384,642 42% Other 221,336 24%

Florida – 2008 to date
All Voting
Dem 650,363 43% Repub 651,700 43% Other 225,980 14%

Florida – 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers
All Voting

Dem 1,056,986 42% Repub 1,097,616 43% Other 386,367 15%

Gli elettori democratici nuovi e saltuari stanno votando ad un ritmo maggiore e con maggiore anticipo rispetto agli elettori non abituali e nuovi del Gop

Colorado – 2008 to date
There are 233,878 new Democrats – 101,595 (43%) have requested mail in ballots.

There are 195,794 new Republicans – 70,248 (36%) have requested mail in ballots.

20% of all Democrats voting by mail have never voted in a general election before.

North Carolina – 2008 to date
There are 816,801 new Democrats – 70,561 (9%) have voted early.
There are 491,106 sporadic Democrats – 91,758 (19%) have voted early.

There are 533,490 new Republicans – 30,676 (6%) have requested mail in ballots.
There are 397,719 sporadic Republicans – 56,418 (14%) have voted early.

18% of all Democrats voting early are new Democrats who have never voted in a general election before and there are a lot more New Democrats.

15% of all Republican voting early are new Republicans

Nevada – 2008 to date
There are 170,672 new Democrats – 21,566 (13%) have voted early.
There are 69,979 sporadic Democrats – 13,305 (19%) have voted early.

There are 98,262 new Republicans – 8,243 (8%) have requested mail in ballots.
There are 52,019 sporadic Republicans – 7,256 (14%) have voted early.

40% of all Democrats voting early are new or Sporadic Democrats

30% of all Republican voting early are new or Sporadic Republicans

Iowa – 2008 to date
There are 103,449 new Democrats – 12,874 (12%) have voted early.
There are 92,479 sporadic Democrats – 20,686 (22%) have voted early.

There are 73,725 new Republicans – 5,414 (7%) have requested mail in ballots.
There are 71,647 sporadic Republicans – 11,577 (16%) have voted early.