Predire il futuro

Le elezioni speciali predicono il futuro delle midterm con maggior efficacia delle governatoriali di NJ e Virginia

The results of the previous year's gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey did not predict the results of the midterm elections. Not only is the estimated coefficient for the Virginia/New Jersey election variable small and statistically insignificant, but it is in the wrong direction: the better Republicans did in Virginia and New Jersey, the worse they did in the subsequent midterm election